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Anyway, the biggest debate seems to be about Mike Trout vs Miguel Cabrera for the AL MVP. First, I need to make a point. To me, how your team does over the course of the season should mean basically nothing in the MVP voting. Baseball is more of a team game than any sport there is. In basketball, a player like LeBron James could potentially turn the league's worst team into a playoff team all by himself, or turn one of the league's best teams into the league's worst team simply by leaving. (Sorry Cleveland) Basketball is an individual sport at the NBA level; players work together at times but generally the best player on the team takes the majority of the shots, and therefore has the greatest outcome on the game. The only player in baseball that can possibly impact the game in that same way is a dominating starting pitcher; but even guys like Justin Verlander and King Felix only play, at best, about 20% of the team's games.
If you were to place baseball's best player in any given season onto the league's worst team in the same season, not one of those teams would make the playoffs. Think about that for a moment: sports writers, the ones who vote for the MVP, have basically decided that the team you play for matters a great deal in post-season awards. That is ridiculous in a sport that relies so much on so many different teammates succeeding. Joe Mauer, Trevor Plouffe and Josh Willingham are all having great seasons this year. The Twins are one of the worst teams in baseball, because the team is full of junk in other places.
Last season Dodgers' outfielder Matt Kemp nearly won the triple crown, when he posted a WAR* of 7.8. His Dodgers failed to make the playoffs, though, and Ryan Braun helped "carry" the Brewers to the post-season, so he won the MVP award. His WAR was 7.7, so he was very similar to Kemp, and most people felt since the Brewers made the playoffs Braun was more deserving. The only issue is that if you were to put Kemp on the Brewers and Braun on the Dodgers, based on WAR, both teams records would have stayed exactly the same. But Kemp would've undoubtedly won the award if the players teams were switched. I don't like that.
*I understand WAR, or Wins Above Replacement, is not the be all end all of player value. If you're unsure what it is, it's basically just how many wins that player is worth over the course of a season, compared to an average player readily available in AAA, or a "replacement player". The defensive issues aren't perfect, I'll admit that, but it is considerably better than any other stat available because it actually factors in defense.
It was important to make that point, because it needs to be emphasized that what happens over the next week and a half really should have no bearing on the outcome of the AL MVP. Sports writers will undoubtedly be waiting to see if Cabrera wins the triple crown or if the Angels or Tigers make the playoffs before casting their votes; they will continue to be blinded by "tradition" instead of simply using common sense.
Miguel Cabrera has had a great season. Nobody in their right mind would argue otherwise. If the season ended today, Miggy would be the first triple crown winner since 1967. His WAR is a very good 6.8. He's hitting .331/.396/.614 with 42 home runs and 133 RBI.** Despite Cabrera's monster offensive season, though, the Tigers have failed to secure a playoff birth despite being heavy preseason favorites to win the division after adding Prince Fielder. That obviously is not Cabrera's fault, but since voters seem to care about wins, it might become an issue. More so if he doesn't hold onto the triple crown. Cabrera's defense at third base has been poor, as expected, but he's been so great offensively nobody seems to care. Defense may not be equally as important as offense, as some suggest, but it's certainly still important. Cabrera is one of the league's worst defensive third baseman, and when paired with other terrible defensive players in Detroit, it's easy to see why they haven't quite lived up to expectations.
**Quick rant: Can we please stop writing and saying "RBIs" for the sake of everyone? Runs Batted In is already plural; RBI. By calling it RBIs you're saying Runs Batted Ins.
However, despite Cabrera's potential triple crown, he's not deserving of the MVP award, and it's really not close. And that's not a knock on Cabrera, because 20-year-old phenom Mike Trout has put together one of the greatest all-around seasons in baseball history. Trout didn't get called up until the end of April, but his WAR is a ridiculous 10.4. For comparison's sake, in 1967 when Yaz won the triple crown, his WAR would've been 12.0, considerably higher than Trout's and almost double what Cabrera has put up this season in his triple crown trek. Trout's hit ..323/.394/.554 in 130 games, adding 28 home runs, 78 RBI and he's stolen 46 of 50 bases. Offensively, his numbers don't quite match up to Cabrera's, but center field is a weaker offensive position than third base. That's important, because if we are to truly find the "most valuable" player, we need to compare players at the same position. Trout also plays outstanding defense while Cabrera's defense, as mentioned above, is poor.
In other words, as good of a season as Miguel Cabrera's had, Trout has been worth 4 more wins this season; when factoring in that Trout didn't even play in April, it makes one realize just how good of a season Mr. Trout has had. The gap in WAR is so large that even a continued slump from Trout over the final 10 games won't be enough to allow Miggy to catch him. WAR might not be perfect, but it's definitely a far better tool to use than RBI and HR and team wins to determine a players "value" in today's MLB. And despite being 100% sure that Mike Trout deserves to win this award, probably unanimously, I'm about as sure that Cabrera will actually win the award unless he struggles badly in these final 10 games.
Miguel Cabrera is a great player who, one day, may be deserving of an MVP award. He's the best hitter on the planet in my opinion. But simply put, Mike Trout was considerably better and should be the AL MVP this season when it's all said and done. Which is why he won't be.
Two big problems, here. First, you wrote that Cabrera is one of the worst third basemen in the league. That's just false. Cabrera is a decent fielding first baseman, just a bit below average. Bill James has his defensive runs saved at negative five. Cabrera made some mis plays early in the season that he wouldn't make now.
ReplyDeleteThat said, Trout is a stellar outfielder. One of the best in the game. His defense has value.
WAR is not nearly an accurate measure of a player's overall value in terms of runs, much less wins. The defensive metrics are so fundamentally flawed that they are unreliable. They are a collection of events placed into an average situation instead of a real situation and the outcome is purely hypothetical.
Second point is that the MVP is given to the most VALUABLE player, not the BEST player. Whether a team makes the playoffs is the ultimate goal of any team. Helping a team reach the playoffs is the ultimate value that a player can provide.
If Cabrera helps his team to a first place finish, which is the goal of every team, and not how many wins they have or runs they score, that has more value than a player that helps his team to a third place finish.
Yes, that means that the same numbers on one team could be more valuable than on another team. Those are just circumstances.
More circumstances- Trout leads the league in BABIP at an unsustainable level. That means that more of the balls that he hits fall in than any other player in the league. Some of this is speed, but some is luck. Cabrera is actually below his career BABIP, which is a little bit of bad luck. Just circumstances.
Last time I checked, they don't give out any hardware to a team that finishes third and misses the playoffs.
Value is making the playoffs.
You're clearly a Tigers fan, so you're opinion is obviously biased. I'll do my best to address each point you made.
ReplyDeleteCabrera wasn't even a decent fielding first baseman, and he's not a decent fielding third baseman. Bill James has his +/- at -10 this year, he's saved -4 runs (which means he's allowed 4 runs, since saving negative runs is a double negative) And his UZR/150 is -12.0. Basically every defensive metric agrees that Cabrera is among the league's worst defensive third baseman.
One thing I was wrong about was that center field was less offensive than third base. This season, the average 3B OPS in the AL is .736 while it's .758 for CF. So Cabrera plays a slightly less offensive position, however, his defense brings negative value. There's no doubting Cabrera has had the best offensive season, but unlike Trout his defense takes away from his value, it doesn't add to it, regardless of his position.
I specifically mentioned WAR wasn't perfect; I'm well aware of the defensive issues. However, they're not technically "wrong" observations that WAR makes.
As far as your "Most valuable" crap... come on. You at least appear to have read what I wrote... I pointed out that no single player in the history of baseball can carry a team on his own to the playoffs. So to use that as a barometer for the award is foolish.
BUT if you really want to do that, I would like to direct you to the MLB standings page. The Angels are 87-70, Detroit is 84-73. The only reason Detroit might make the playoffs and the Angels might not is because Detroit plays in the league's worst division.
The Angels were 6-14 when they called up Trout, so by your logic Trout has led them to an 81-56 record (a .591 winning percentage) while Cabrera has led Detroit to an 84-73 record, or a .535 winning percentage.
The Angels are a better team than Detroit, and if you switched Cabrera and Trout, Detroit would have a better record. "Circumstances" or not, that's a fact. I know you want to see one of your favorite players win the MVP, and he most likely will because they've gotten the voting wrong almost every year. But Trout is far more deserving this year.
anyone who thinks swapping Trout on the Tigers and Cabrera on the Angels will give the Tigers more wins then they had this year is delusional.
Delete3B sucks on the Angels and centerfield is really good on the Tigers. Swapping the best hitting 3B onto a team with no 3B production is going to be a net profit comparing a swap of two of the best center fielders in the game.
You do understand that their are 3 outfield positions, right?
ReplyDeleteJackson's 5.4 WAR would probably be slightly lower in LF, because it's more offensive than CF, but his defense would be even better most likely so it's at least possible Jackson's 5.4 would remain intact.
Trout would move to CF, Jackson would replace Delmon Young. Young's played in 148 games and has a WAR of -0.4. That means he's been worth less than a replacement player would've been. Even Ramon Santiago, who's been terrible most of the season, has a WAR of -0.2. So if you replace Cabrera with Trout, bench Delmon, and move any replacement level third baseman from AAA to the MLB team, the team is IMPROVING considerably.
I appreciate the comments though.
I am a tiger fan,and have seen 95% of their games. I have seen a lot of baseball games this year. A month ago I would have voted for Trout, even after Miggy was Mlb player of Aug on bad ankles. But the way he closed has won him Mvp.The notion that he is not a good 3B is false. War and UZR are fictional bs stats. Compare his Po. A. and Dps to Wright, Beltray, 2 Gold glove 3bs. This is despite playing on a team that has 2 top so pitchers in league. Both are having great seasons.
ReplyDeleteErik,
DeleteGet over it Trout will one day be a MVP perhaps this year perhaps not. What I would rather see as him being a rookie is can he back it up year after year, to me that warrants more validation to anoint him as the MLB’s next coming of the super player. I am so tired of hearing the old ways versus the new ways which I think are more flawed so we can raise everyone’s fantasy stats up.
Do defensive stats put numbers on the boards at the end of the game that count as runs? Last I checked offensive numbers indicated what goes towards the final score. Defense is important and helps keep the other team of the board but one man does not account for the entire team defense in a game.
Of course then there is the old saying most valuable player, perhaps to you and the mini metric followers all the digits are important but to me someone who wants to see how they contribute at the plate, support their team and holt the team goals above personnel numbers is more important than tracking a stat.
Is Trout a good ball player sure, but let’s change it up and throw him at 3b and Miggy to outfield and let’s see if the numbers change. How long has Miggy been playing third?
Perhaps if we all stopped worrying about the numbers and just enjoyed watching the game again it would matter more who was more valuable to their team in the end.
Please understand I root for the tigers but I grew up in Baltimore watching Brooks Robinson play third play I wonder how you would chart his records?
I get why you believe Trout should be the MVP but I do not agree. Advanced metrics like WAR while interesting I think often try to be facts rather than simply data. As I understand it, WAR's defensive measure compares players to the average player at his position which when you are dealing with someone like Cabrera who really should not be at 3rd base poses a bit of problem. Fair or not, he's going to get credit for taking one for the team and playing at third so that Prince Fielder can play at first. His lower defensive numbers are not going to be forgiven in his WAR measure but certainly will be among MVP voters especially if he wins the Triple Crown with every offensive category better than Trout (except stolen bases).
ReplyDeleteSimilar to how Golden Glove awards are often not given to the best defensive player at a position because their offensive numbers are lower, the MVP is going to the guy with the best offensive numbers.
To the first anonymous: Putouts, assists and DPs are a terrible way to tell who's good defensively and who is not. Cabrera doesn't get to the same balls that Beltre does; not even close. However, Cabrera could have more putouts and assists if the pitching staff allows more ground balls to third than Beltre's. UZR and +/- take both range factor AND consistency into account. Again, they aren't perfect, but they are considerably better than anything currently available.
ReplyDeleteTo Anon 2: The goal of the MVP is to find the best player for this season. It's not a long-term award; you don't give it to someone just because they've played at a high level for a long time. They need to be the most deserving DURING THAT SEASON. Otherwise Derek Jeter would win the award this year, cause we all know how sportswriters think of that guy. As far as offense being the only contributing factor to a team's winning... come on. You can't win without good pitching generally, and you can't have good pitching consistently without good defense. And if you have great pitching, great defense and no offense, you'll have trouble winning. You need to be good at all three aspects. Offense is ALWAYS going to be valued higher, and I said in my own post that it should be. But to suggest defense is almost useless in comparison to offense is ridiculous. Trout has 337 putouts this year, while he has 635 plate appearances. So a 65-35 split seems fair, which is about what WAR values them at when determining value. Also, to suggest Cabrera and Trout change positions is just ridiculous. Cabrera came up as a third baseman, so it's not like he's moving to a whole new position. He moved to first base because he's a terrible defensive third baseman. Detroit didn't care about defense, clearly, and it's the main reason the Tigers went from 10 game favorites before the season to battling for a playoff spot into the last series of the regular season. And Brooks Robinson is widely considered the greatest defensive third baseman of all-time, right? There aren't UZR stats for him. There aren't +/- stats for him. I wasn't even born when he played, so how I would "chart his records" is based completely on hearsay. But that said, I think he's an unbelievably great player, mainly because he was an elite defensive player who also could hit. Brooks Robinson is a better comparison to Trout, than Cabrera, because Trout is elite defensively.
To Anon 3: I appreciate the way you disagreed, like a civilized human being. While you are right Cabrera's defense hurts his WAR, the fact that he's played 3B instead of 1B all season is reflected in his WAR total as well. His bat is more valuable at 3B, so his offensive numbers at 3B create a higher WAR than they would if he was playing 1B. His defense at 1B wouldn't be elite either, so it's likely his WAR would be similar as a 1B this year as it was as a 3B. It might even go down, not up. And just because he "took one for the team" doesn't undermine how bad he is defensively. If you work for a sales company as an HR rep, and then randomly get moved to sales the next year, if you suck at sales they aren't going to give you credit for moving from a different division. They're going to want someone who's better at sales.
Golden Gloves are probably the least correct of all the awards that are given. Writers will vote for someone they saw make a great play on an opposing team one time, when teams play 162 games. The fact that Mr. Jeter (who I actually really like) has won multiple gold gloves shows it's a popularity contest more than a real award. Mauer won the Gold Glove a few years ago when Gerald Laird, a Tiger, was way more deserving. That happens every year. To suggest the MVP be awarded like Gold Gloves would be a step back, not an improvement.
Eric,Texas and Detroit both finished with 1103 so. Unless one thinks an uncanny amount of rh batters are pulling scherzers 95+ mph and Verlanders 100 mph fastballs down the line, PO's A's and Dp's tells me Cabera is getting to as many balls as Beltry. Not Voodoo math,just fact. But What do I know. I'm just a 57 year baseball fan too foolish to realize real baseball began when Brad Pitt became a GM.
DeleteYour logic is completely flawed. We are talking about Texas and Detroit defensively; therefore, how many times each team struck out OFFENSIVELY has no bearing on this discussion. Do you follow? The strikeouts that would matter would be the team pitching strikeouts, because that's what effects the defensive numbers. But again, that still doesn't tell the whole story.
ReplyDeleteIn 2012, Detroit 3B had 405 "chances" (basically routine plays) while Texas had 395 "chances" which means the pitching opportunities were similar, as you said. You just cited the completely wrong statistic to prove your point.
But again, I'm not arguing how many chances each player had. Beltre saved runs for Texas; Cabrera's defense cost the Tigers runs. Obviously Cabrera's offense was considerably better, which is why every metric has Cabrera more valuable than Beltre. Trout, however, is similar offensively and leaps and bounds better defensively.
Citing Brad Pitt is also laughable, because the movie is terribly false. As a 57-year-old baseball fan, you should know that. Oh well.
Eric, What is Beltry doing with all those extra balls he is getting to? Fliping them to Elvis so he can pad his stats? I must have missed all of Caberas 4 run errors.
ReplyDeleteWhat are you even trying to say?
ReplyDeleteI am saying you have no real numbers to explain these mythical balls Beltry is getting to
ReplyDeleteWait, you're actually trying to suggest that Cabrera and ADRIAN BELTRE are comparable defensively? Unbelievable.
ReplyDeleteThere are PLENTY of numbers that suggest Beltre is 100 times better.
Compare Beltre's advanced fielding stats: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=639&position=3B#fielding
To Cabrera's:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1744&position=1B/3B#fielding
Looking at the advanced fielding stats, look at RngR for each player. That stat is SPECIFICALLY related to the range each player has. Fan Graphs defines it as: "The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity."
Beltre's was +5.3 this year, his worst season defensively in a long time, and he was still well above average. Cabrera's was -14.7. To suggest they get to the same balls isn't just wrong, it's ridiculously wrong.
Eric,I'm not touting Cabrera for a gold glove. I said I'm a tiger fan, not a blind one. We had the the worst defensive infield in baseball this year. No major league 2b until late July,A ss who is great on anything hit within 3 feet of him,a short armed 1b generously listed at 5'11 without the agility to make up for it.{ In his defense he hustles like hell}The one bright spot was Miggy. The pre-conceived opionion of which I shared, was that this big bear was going to trip over his own two feet and be a disaster.Suprise!He came in lighter,quick , and with a cannon arm.Real numbers back that up.He doesn't need a false sterotype backed by hypethetical numbers detracting from his season. to Quote Larry Bowa, a man with some knowledge of ML defense "I don't need no uzr I've got two eyes" Bye the same token Trout doesn't need hypethetical numbers to hype his season.He had an historical year and not just by rookie standards.But this year he is up against a God. Only baseball gods win triple crowns. You can go to Cooperstown and look it up. B c
ReplyDeleteI am so sick of all you sports writers swinging from Trouts balls. How can a guy who won Triple Crown(an achievement, not an award) be denied MVP (the award)? It's preposterous. That said, Cabrera is AL MVP. Trout is ROY, and hopefully a player that will have the numbers consistently in his first TEN seasons,and an MVP some day.
ReplyDeleteI'm equally as sick of people who claim to be baseball fans that can't seem to comprehend that a Triple Crown doesn't automatically mean someone was the most valuable player.
ReplyDeleteIt's been proven over decades that AVG, HR and RBI are NOT the best way to truly tell a player's real value. And while Triple Crown's are rare, Trout's 30 HR/50 SB season has been done LESS TIMES than someone has won a triple crown. That means Trout's season was even rarer than winning a triple crown.
You are all welcome to your own opinion, but to anyone who takes the time to actually study each player's seasons, Trout is the MVP.