Thursday, October 13, 2011

Reviewing my Fantasy Baseball Predictions

Back in March, before the season began, I wrote an article for So Much Sports with 25 predictions for the upcoming fantasy baseball season. Let's see how I did:

1. Manny Ramirez will hit at least 30 home runs.
Whoops. He probably would have hit the 30 home runs had he not been caught, but what a fool he is.
Prediction: Wrong
2. Derek Jeter will be worse in 2011 than he was in 2010.
Jeter hit .270/.340/.370 in 2010, while the league as a whole hit .260/.327/.407. He hit .297/.355/.388 this year, while the league as a whole hit .258/.323/.408. So yeah, Jeter made me look silly.
Prediction: Wrong
3. Josh Beckett will post an ERA over 6 in April.
Beckett went 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA in April. Oh for three so far.
Prediction: Wrong
4. Josh Beckett will finish with 15+ wins and a sub 4 ERA.
He finished 13-7 with a 2.89 ERA.
Prediction: Half-Right
5. BJ Upton will not ‘figure it all out.’
BJ hit .243/.331/.449, which is solid for a center fielder but certainly not the level most expected from him at this point in his career.
Prediction: Right
6. Justin Upton will.
.289/.369/.529 with 31 home runs and 21 steals as a 23-year old? I think it's safe to say the younger Upton "figured it out" this year.
Prediction: Right
7. Jason Heyward and Buster Posey will prove last year wasn’t a fluke in a big way.
Heyward in 2010: .277/.393/.456
Heyward in 2011: .227/.319/.389
Posey in 2010: .305/.357/.505 in 108 games.
Posey in 2011: .284/.368/.389 in 45 games prior to his injury.
Prediction: Wrong and Wrong
8. Jose Reyes will steal 40+ bases, but be disappointing in general.
Reyes hit .337/.384/.493, won the NL batting title and stole 39 bases. I was wrong in every aspect.
Prediction: Wrong and Wrong
9. Chase Utley will finish with less than 100 at-bats this season.
He got almost 400. Oops.
Prediction: Wrong
10. Justin Morneau will finish with over 500 at-bats.
Injuries plagued him yet again and he got just under 300 at-bats. At this point, it's not even a sure thing Morneau will have another 500 at-bats in his career.
Prediction: Wrong
11. Joe Mauer will hit 20+ home runs.
He hit 3. He got boo'ed. I should get boo'ed.
Prediction: Wrong
12. Colby Rasmus, Gordon Beckham, Starlin Castro and Madison Bumgarner will all exceed expectations.
Rasmus got traded and saw his OPS drop more than 150 points from 2010. 
Beckham hit .230/.296/.337. 
Castro hit .307/.341/.432 as a 21-year-old. 
Madison Bumgarner went 13-13 with a 3.21 ERA.
Prediction: Wrong, Wrong, Right, Right
13. Rickie Weeks will again get injured and miss at least a month.
Weeks hurt his ankle in late July and played in just 118 games this year.
Prediction: Right
14. Grady Sizemore will be a top 20 fantasy outfielder by the end of the season.
He played in just 71 games and hit .224/.285/.422. Way off.
Prediction: Wrong
15. Ichiro will win the batting title.
Age looks like it's starting to catch up to him. He hit just .272 this year, the first time he's failed to hit .300 since coming to the states.
Prediction: Wrong
16. Adam Dunn will lead all of baseball in home runs.
Prediction: Laughably Wrong
17. Nyjer Morgan will lead all of baseball in steals.
He stole 13 bases. Michael Bourn led baseball with 61.
Prediction: Wrong
18. Roy Oswalt will lead all of baseball in wins.
Oswalt went 9-10 with a 3.69 ERA. Justin Verlander won 24 games.
Prediction: Wrong
19. Jonathon Papelbon will lead all of baseball in saves.
Paps finished with 31 saves, while Tigers closer Jose Valverde led the league with 49.
Prediction: Wrong
20. Carlos Pena will hit over .250 with 30+ home runs.
He hit .225 with 28 home runs.
Prediction: Wrong and Wrong
21. Jose Bautista will hit half as many home runs as last year.
I thought he'd hit 27. He hit 43.
Prediction: Wrong
22. Carlos Santana will be a top 3 fantasy catcher at this time next season.
Santana ranks #1 on the early 2012 rankings on ESPN.
Prediction: Right
23. Miguel Cabrera will narrowly miss out on the Triple Crown.
He hit .344 and won the AL batting title but he finished just 10th in home runs and 6th in RBI, so he didn't "narrowly" miss it.
Prediction: Wrong
24. Mike Stanton will hit 40 home runs.
He hit 34.
Prediction: Wrong
25. Matt Wieters being called “Mauer with Power” will look even more ridiculous at the end of the season than it does now.
He hit 22 home runs, so there is definitely power, but his overall line of .262/.328/.450 while good is not quite the level people expected. This prediction was kind of vague and generally a bad one to make; there's not really any way to gauge if it was right or wrong.
Prediction: Dumb
I admit these predictions were more "bold" predictions than things I expected to happen, but I felt all were possible. I only got 6 predictions correct, but I did manage to finish second in my fantasy league this year. I'll take it.


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