Danny Valencia: Overhyped?

Over the last year, the local writers and even some national writers have been calling Danny Valencia the Twins third baseman of the future. Valencia has hit at every level, and while he's far from an elite defensive player he's good enough to stay at third base long term. He's a solid prospect with a good amount of potential, and he should be a solid starting third baseman in his prime if he continues to develop.

However, fans and writers alike continue to say the the Twins should only sign a third baseman for one year to make sure there's not anyone blocking Valencia when he's ready. I disagree. Valencia isn't ready to start this year, in my opinion, and the team can't go into the season with Nick Punto or Brendan Harris starting at third until Valencia is deemed ready. My preference was for the team to sign Troy Glaus to play third base, and give Valencia some at bats in September, but with Glaus signing with the Braves that's no longer an option.

The Twins have been rumored to be interested in Kevin Kouzmanoff, reportedly offering Glen Perkins for him at the winter meetings. Almost everyone agreed that it would be a steal for the Twins to get Kouzmanoff for simply Perkins, which is also why the Padres needed more. I heard arguments from people that the Twins had no reason to offer more because Kouzmanoff would be blocking Valencia after this season. While I understand the reasoning behind that thought process, I disagree with it.

Valencia is not a sure-thing to make it, and honestly even if he does his highest projection seems to be as a solid starter. If the Twins are able to land an upgrade at third base for this coming season, they need to do it. If that means acquiring a reasonably priced Kevin Kouzmanoff for the next two or three seasons, than by all means do it. If Kouzmanoff struggles, the team can simply non-tender him following this season and give the job to Valencia anyways. The more likely result, however, is that Kouzmanoff would blossom away from Petco Park, and the Twins would have a solid starting third baseman.

It is definitely possible that Valencia plays extremely well in the spring, manages to win the third base job and becomes a better player from day 1 than most people think he's capable of. However, for a team hoping to make some noise in the playoffs they need to find upgrades in as many ways as possible, and relying on a prospect to be a major upgrade could prove to be a major mistake.

With Troy Glaus signing a one-year deal with Atlanta, my preference for a one year stop gap is off the market. I won't be too upset if the team decides to re-sign Joe Crede yet again, assuming they are planning to give Valencia the job when Crede is hurt, but I would prefer to see the team swing a trade for an upgrade or wait out Adrian Beltre's asking price.

Valencia is a solid prospect that appears to be valued too highly by Twins fans and writers. I think he could become a solid player, and obviously I hope he is even better than that, but if my job was to build a World Series contender for the 2010 season, I wouldn't want to know I let Kevin Kouzmanoff or someone similar go because I wanted Danny Valencia to start at third base in 2011.

Merry Christmas

For those who celebrate it, Merry Christmas. I'll be back on the 26th with a new post, so be sure to check back. Have a safe and happy holiday!

Orlando Hudson

I've been advocating pretty heavily over the last few weeks that Orlando Hudson is the best target for the Twins this off-season. He's a very good hitter, plays a position of need for the Twins, fits into their lineup well, and best of all he won't cost a draft pick to sign because the Dodgers didn't offer him arbitration. The Twins haven't been connected with Hudson much at all, and he seems like a long shot to be a Twin on opening day, but with Bill Smith always tight-lipped about the organization's plans, anything is possible.

In my off-season wish list, I assumed Carl Pavano was going to leave for free agency, and the Twins could use his $6-$7MM salary for the first season of Orlando Hudson's contract. Pavano accepted though, so the team is a bit more strapped with the budget. However, some creativity would allow the team to still fit Hudson into their payroll while paying Pavano on a 1-year deal.

I fully expect the Twins to re-sign Joe Mauer this off-season, and every prediction I made gave him a raise on this coming season's salary which is currently set for $12.5MM. If the Twins simply make the offer to Mauer a true extension, say 6 years and $125MM, that's ultimately a 7 year, $137.5MM contract when factoring in this coming season. Over those 7 years, Mauer would receive $12.5MM, $18MM, $20MM, $21MM, $21MM, $22MM, $23MM or something along those lines. I had predicted Mauer make $18MM this coming season, but by keeping his current salary at $12.5MM the Twins would have an extra $5.5MM to spend elsewhere.

That money should go directly to Orlando Hudson. Guessing his market value is difficult, but with Placido Polanco getting $6MM a year and Chone Figgins getting $9MM a year, I think an average around $6.5MM would be plenty to get Hudson. With the Twins non-tendering Boof Bonser, who I had projected to make close to $1MM this coming season, they would have close to $6.5MM available.

Hudson is a major upgrade for several reasons. First, and foremost, the Twins won't need to rely on an aging, injury prone third baseman on an incentive-based contract. I wouldn't complain if the team added Troy Glaus, or even Crede again, but only if Hudson and other options end up well out of the Twins price range.

Hudson has posted an OBP (On-base percentage) over .350 in each of the last 4 seasons, going as high as .376 in 2007 with Arizona. His batting average has been solid, although I don't put much weight into batting averages, and his power has been above-average for a second baseman. His defensive reputation is much better than he actually is, as he's won 4 gold gloves in the last 5 years despite being a below average second baseman according to UZR. However, his defense isn't bad enough where it's a liability like it is with Dan Uggla, and his offense more than makes up for it.

FanGraphs has O-Hud's value last year at $13MM, and projects he'll be worth $11.5MM this year. The way their value is determined is a bit complicated, but for comparison's sake Michael Cuddyer was given a value of $8.8MM last year with his exceptional season. Hudson undoubtedly is given more value because he plays second base, and if the Twins are able to get him for 10% more than Placido Polanco signed for that's a major upgrade for the Twins organization.

With Hudson's fantastic ability to get on base, the lineup would be deep and talented for the first time in nearly two decades:

Span
Hudson
Mauer
Morneau
Kubel
Cuddyer
Hardy
Young
Punto

I would prefer an incentive-laden deal for a 3B to get Punto to the bench, but if the team signs Hudson I certainly won't complain about one more year of Nick Punto in the starting lineup. I also would like to see the Twins target Johnny Gomes, who was non-tendered by the Reds, as he's a more productive version of Delmon Young, but I don't expect that to happen.

Bill Smith, just please bring in Orlando Hudson and give this team some buzz going into Spring Training. Re-signing Mauer will undoubtedly get positive publicity and if Smith gets it done he deserves a lot of credit, but upgrading a major position of weakness would be a huge step in the right direction for a team looking to win the division in 162 games this year.

NFL Picks

Last week: 8-7

I finally had a positive week again, and despite picking the Bengals on here I actually took the Vikings, so it was a more successful week than the prior two. With an early game tomorrow, I decided I'd just make my NFL Picks now since I won't be monitoring the games all that much after tonight anyways.

On a sad note, I'd hope that you could say a prayer for Chris Henry, who is on Life Support as I write this fighting for his life after a freak accident during a domestic dispute. Here are my picks for this week:

Jags +3 over Colts
Pulling the starters will cost them their undefeated season this week, especially with the Jaguars basically needing a win to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Cowboys +7 over Saints
I found it interesting to read that in 2007, when the Pats went 16-0, they were 1-7 against the spread their final 8 games. The Cowboys December woes are well-documented, and the Saints have looked like the best team in football this year, but I expect this game to come down to the last play. I'm pulling for a Dallas win, but I'll take a cover as well.

Chiefs -1.5 over Browns
Dwayne Bowe returns just in time to help lead the Chiefs over the Browns in a shootout among two bad, bad teams.

Pats -7 over Bills
Randy Moss is going to shut up a lot of his critics this week, and he's going to anger his fantasy owners that lost last week because of his performance only to watch him go for 150 yards and 2 TDs in the snow.

Cards -12 over Detroit
48-3 against a solid Baltimore team? I think Arizona is better, and while the game probably won't be that lopsided, Arizona should cruise pretty easily here.

Eagles -8 over 49ers
Philly's offense is simply too hard to stop. I think the 49ers defensive backs will get burned all night and the Eagles will win by double digits in a game that's really never close.

Bears +11 over Ravens
I doubt Chicago wins this game, but I think Cutler has a game in him where he makes nothing but good decisions and keeps a game close. I'll guess that's this week against a Ravens team that may be soft after coming off a blowout win against the Lions.

And the rest...

Bengals +6.5 over Chargers
Broncos -14 over Raiders
Seahawks -6.5 over Bucs
Steelers -2 over Packers
Vikings -9 over Panthers
Giants -3 over Redskins

Pavano Accepts, Changes Off-Season

Last week, hours before the deadline for players to accept or decline their arbitration offers, Carl Pavano realized the most money he would likely get would be to simply accept the Twins offer. A lot of people were very pleased with this, as Pavano was far better than his 5+ ERA suggests, but I'm a bit less happy with the move.

I would have rather seen the Twins fill out the rotation with one of the Liriano/Duensing/Swarzak/Perkins group, and spend the $7 MM+ on a second base upgrade. Pavano made close to $4.5 MM last year, and will certainly get a raise this season. $7 MM seems like a solid, educated guess and that's almost exactly the first year salary I had predicted for Orlando Hudson. Unless the Twins are willing to move their payroll close to $100 MM, which needless to say won't be happening.

Pavano likely will be the team's #3 starter next year, and he certainly is a safer, more sure starter than any of the Perkins/Liriano/Swarzak/Duensing group. The rotation likely will be Baker, Slowey, Pavano, Blackburn and one of the other group. Now, I understand why the team preferred Pavano accept, rather than using the money on a second baseman. Pitchers are important, and depth in your staff is vital over the long season. Adding a veteran like Pavano, who was healthy all of last season, makes sense. The problem I have is that Rich Harden signed for $6.5 MM guaranteed, with $3.5 MM in incentives and an $11 MM mutual option next season. That's a steal for Texas, and I wish the Twins had been more involved.

Harden will only make $10 MM if he stays healthy and pitches well, so the Twins could have had a potential ace on what is ultimately a one year, $10 MM deal. Keep in mind, up until this past season, Pavano had spent most of the past five seasons battling several injuries, and finally was able to stay healthy. Why can't Harden do the same? He made 25 starts in 2008 and 26 starts last season, and if he finally remains healthy that number could surpass 30 next season.

I would have preferred Hudson over Pavano, because the upgrade is more significant at second base over Casilla/Harris (with Punto set to play 3B for now). Pavano should be an upgrade over the three left overs from the previous group, but the difference likely won't be as large as some people believe. If Pavano gets hurt, the Twins ultimately wasted the money without much potential for a great reward. Despite the upgrade Hudson provided, though, I preferred Harden over almost any realistic free agent possibility for Minnesota.

Harden would have been a risk, but with the potential to be a true number one starter his addition would have given the team a good opportunity to compete in the playoffs. I'm certainly not going to rule out the Twins chances in a short series against anyone, because the percentages simply aren't that dominating for any one team, but Harden would have had the potential to give the Twins a very good 1-2 punch with a deep, solid 3-4-5.

I don't blame Bill Smith for this. Offering arbitration was the right move, and for all I know Smith was planning on signing Harden if Pavano declined arbitration. Unfortunately, Harden signed prior to the arbitration deadline and Pavano was unable to find a multi-year deal to his liking so he stayed in Minnesota.

Of course, if Bill Smith truly wanted to bring in an upgrade at second base, preferably Hudson, he still could squeeze Hudson's contract into the projected $93 MM payroll I had fairly easily. Make the Mauer contract a true extension, which means Mauer's $12.5 MM salary remains for this season, rather than the $18MM I had projected. That would give the team $5.5MM more, and they could either trade Crain and/or Perkins or simply move the payroll up about $1MM and have a much improved lineup.

I'm fine with the Pavano move, I just believe the Twins missed out on a golden opportunity to land the one pitcher they should have been going after hard in Harden. If Smith can find a way to bring in an upgrade at second base, and even a potential starter at third base, the Pavano move won't be a mistake at all. Tomorrow, I'll discuss why adding a third baseman certainly isn't a problem in relation to Danny Valencia.

What Might Have Been

Admittedly, I don't write about the Timberwolves very much here. That's not because I'm not a fan, but rather because I understand most sports fans simply don't care for the Wolves. The fact that they have been one of the worst two teams in the NBA this year certainly doesn't help their case, but I was informed of some information that made me extremely depressed.

My 'source' was someone who did indeed work for the Wolves prior to the draft, but was let go immediately following it. This information is important because if it was someone still inside the Wolves building, I would feel they were lying to look better... but this guy was let go so he would have every reason to spread bad things about the organization, not the information he told me.

It goes back to the night of the draft, when the Wolves selected Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn with picks #5 and 6. Surprisingly, the Wolves apparently were set on two completely different players at those spots, and were convinced they were going to get them. Who, you ask?

Kahn and his staff apparently expected the draft to go Griffin, Thabeet, Harden, Rubio, which meant the Wolves wouldn't have a chance at landing Rubio. Kahn was enamored with Tyreke Evans, and apparently the Wolves had him rated #3 on their board behind Rubio (who, yes, was #1) and Blake Griffin. That's not much of a secret, as many Wolves fans expected one of those picks to be Evans if he was around.

The surprising information came when my source told me the Wolves had Brandon Jennings ranked #5, behind Harden but ahead of Thabeet. Rubio/Griffin/Evans/Harden/Jennings/Thabeet were their top six. Now, Kahn had expected Rubio/Griffin/Harden/Thabeet to be gone, which would have left the Wolves with Jennings and Evans at #5 and #6.

So why did the Wolves end up with Flynn instead? As has been rumored for awhile, the Wolves had agreed to trade #6 and #18 to Sacramento for #4 which was Tyreke Evans, but only if James Johnson was on the board at #18. Kahn had Flynn rated 7th, and he felt Evans was so special that it was worth taking the risk that Johnson would be around. Of course, Johnson wasn't around, Sacramento didn't want anyone else with Flynn, and the Wolves ultimately were "stuck" with him.

Kahn has talked Flynn up to be a special player, but my source insists that's just talk in the media. Obviously Kahn isn't going to come out and say he wanted Jennings over Flynn because that doesn't do anyone any good, but that's the truth of the matter.

Can you imagine how much of a slam dunk Kahn's first draft would have been had things fallen as he expected? An Evans/Jennings backcourt would be sensational right now, and combined with Kevin Love and Al Jefferson, that team might actually have been a surprise contender for one of the last playoff spots in the West. Unfortunately, that didn't happen, and for the first time in my life getting inside information actually made me more depressed than I was before I heard it.

The silver lining, of course, is that Kahn had targeted arguably the two best rookies this yaer, and things just didn't fall his way. I was surprised to find out Rubio was #1, although I agree with it, simply because it felt like everyone was so high on Blake Griffin. Kahn has called Rubio a 'franchise-altering' type talent, and he's called Flynn 'special.' He's being honest with Rubio, and he's talking Flynn up incase he needs to trade him this off-season, in the event the Wolves win the lottery finally and end up with John Wall. If they don't, then Flynn remains the point guard of the foreseeable future.

Just thought that'd be interesting to the 75 Wolves fans in the country.

NFL Picks

With the Steelers losing again tonight, I'm again starting the week 0-1 as I chose them to foolishly cover a 10 point spread. I made the prediction on Twitter, and if you'd like to follow me the link is to the right of this post. Here are my picks for this weekend:

Texans -6.5 over Seahawks
Bengals +6.5 over Vikings
Colts -7 over Broncos
Bucs +3 over Jets
Chiefs -1 over Bills
Packers -3 over Bears
Ravens -13.5 over Lions
Dolphins +3 over Jaguars
Patriots -13.5 over Panthers
**Falcons -10.5 over Saints
Redskins -1 over Raiders
Chargers +3 over Cowboys
Eagles +1 over Giants
Cards -3.5 over 49ers

**If Matt Ryan plays, I'll be taking the Falcons. If he doesn't, I think the Saints will cover easily.